Predicting survival of endoscopic gastrostomy candidates using the underlying disease, serum cholesterol, albumin and transferrin levels

• Localización: Nutrición hospitalaria: Órgano oficial de la Sociedad Española de Nutrición Clínica y Metabolismo (SENPE), ISSN-e 1699-5198, ISSN 0212-1611, Vol. 28, Nº. 4, 2013, págs. 1280-1285
• Idioma: inglés
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• Resumen

  • Background:

    Endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) is the gold standard for long-term enteral feeding. An adequate PEG candidate must have life expectancy longer than a few weeks. Patients surviving less than three weeks should have a nasogastric tube, and gastrostomy should be avoid. There are few studies looking to prognostic factors and fewer attempts of creating a predictor model for PEG patient�s survival.

    Aim:

    The aim of this study was creating a predictive survival model for PEG candidates, using underlying disease, cholesterol, albumin and transferrin.

    Methods:

    Data was obtained from records of adult patients that underwent PEG between 1999 and 2011. Patients surviving < 3 weeks were considered short survivors; surviving >= 3 weeks were considered adequate survivors. A full logistic regression model was used to classify future cases into one of the two groups of survival.

    Results:

    An equation for the probability of future cases was generated, in order to obtain a P value. In the future, patients with a P >= 0,88 will have a 64,7% probability of adequate surviving; patients with a P < 0,88 will have a 70.3% probability of short surviving.

    Conclusions:

    When clinical evaluation alone does not display a clear prognosis, this equation should be included in the evaluation of gastrostomy candidates, avoiding useless gastrostomy.